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COPPER MARKET ANALYSIS · JUNE 2026
The Global Copper Market
A detailed read of copper supply, demand, trade, prices and recycling — where the market stands and where it is heading — drawing on ICSG, USGS and LME data, through the lens of a European non-ferrous merchant-recycler.
Prepared by AC STEEL Sp. z o.o. · Sources: ICSG · USGS · LME · Data through Q1 2026
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
What matters now
- ▪The ~27 Mt refined market has tipped from deficit to a modest surplus — ICSG forecasts +96 kt in 2026 and +377 kt in 2027 — on softer demand and faster scrap-based output.
- ▪Supply is concentrated and disruption-prone: Chile mines ~5.3 Mt, yet China refines ~14 Mt — about half the world and eight times its own mine output.
- ▪The value chain is geographically lopsided — the Americas mine, Asia refines and consumes (76% of usage).
- ▪Prices remain historically elevated (~$8.5k–9.7k/t average; a record ~$11k/t intraday in 2024), supporting scrap economics.
- ▪Electrification underwrites structural demand; secondary copper (4.7 Mt refined, +7.6% in Q1 2026) is the strategic growth segment for recyclers.
01
MARKET BALANCE · 2024–2027
A 27-million-tonne market on a knife’s edge
Refined supply and demand each sit near 27 million tonnes a year, within roughly a percentage point of one another. After two years of deficit narrative, ICSG’s April 2026 forecast tips the market into a modest surplus.
23 Mt
World mine production (2024)
27.5 Mt
World refined production (2024)
27.4 Mt
World refined usage (2024)
4.7 Mt
Secondary refined, from scrap (2024)
+96 kt
Forecast refined surplus, 2026 (from a 150 kt deficit seen in Oct 2025)
+377 kt
Forecast refined surplus, 2027
+396 kt
Apparent refined surplus, Q1 2026 (vs +135 kt a year earlier)
02
THE FORECAST IN CHARTS
Deficit to surplus, and the growth behind it
Two reads of the ICSG Copper Market Forecast 2026/2027: the swing in the refined balance, and the growth assumptions underpinning it. Charts animate as they scroll into view.
World refined copper balance (kt)
A 150 kt deficit (Oct 2025) was revised into a ~96 kt surplus for 2026; the surplus widens to ~377 kt in 2027.
ICSG growth forecasts (%)
Secondary (scrap) refined production is the fastest-growing source of supply in 2026, at about 5.7%.
03
SUPPLY
Concentrated, and increasingly disruption-prone
Copper’s supply base is unusually concentrated. Chile alone accounted for about 24% of world mine output in 2024; downstream, China commands roughly 51% of smelter and 45% of refined production. That leaves the market exposed to single-asset shocks.
- ▪ICSG cut 2026 mine-supply growth to ~1.6% (from 2.3%) after incidents at Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa (DRC)
- ▪In Q1 2026, Indonesian concentrate output fell ~42% and Chilean mine production ~5.8%
- ▪Growth leans on a few ramp-ups — Oyu Tolgoi, Malmyz, Julong, Almalyk and Cobre Panama stockpile ore
- ▪A firmer 2027 (+2.3%) assumes recovery in Chile, Zambia, Indonesia and the DRC
04
SMELTING & REFINING
The bottleneck has moved to concentrates
With abundant smelting capacity but constrained mine supply, the binding constraint is concentrate availability. ICSG expects world refined production to rise only ~0.4% in 2026 before accelerating to ~3% in 2027. Primary electrolytic output is capped by feed; SX-EW and secondary refined production take up some of the slack.
The geography is tightening: in Q1 2026, China and the DRC — together ~60% of refined output — grew a combined ~9%, while the rest of the world contracted ~1.4% and Chilean refined output fell ~11.7%.
05
REGIONAL STRUCTURE
The chain is geographically lopsided
Few regions hold the same position across mining, refining and use. Each chart shows a region’s share of world mine production, refined production and refined usage in 2024 — the legend is the same across all five.
Asia
Refines and consumes far more than it mines — the global demand engine.
Americas
The mine of the world — but little of the refining or end-use.
Europe
Comparatively balanced across the value chain.
Africa
A fast-growing mining and refining base; minimal domestic use.
Oceania
A modest mining contributor; negligible refining and use.
Bars = share of world total, 2024. Legend: Mine (anthracite) · Refined production (deep copper) · Refined usage (light copper). Source: ICSG World Copper Factbook 2025.
06
COUNTRY LEADERS · USGS 2026
Who mines copper — and who refines it
USGS data make the structural split unmistakable. Chile leads mining at roughly 5.3 Mt; the United States mines ~1.0 Mt. Refining tells the opposite story: China alone produces an estimated ~14 Mt of refined copper — more than half the world and ~8× its own mine output — drawing in concentrate and scrap. World totals: mine ~23 Mt, refinery ~29 Mt; reserves ~980 Mt, led by Chile (~180 Mt).
Top mine producers (2025e)
Recoverable copper content. The Andes (Chile, Peru) and Central Africa (DR Congo) dominate the orebody.
Top refinery producers (2025e)
Smelter/refinery output (primary + secondary). China’s ~14 Mt is about half of world supply.
2025 estimates, thousand tonnes of copper content. Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (Copper).
07
PRICES · LME
Historically elevated, and structurally supported
Copper has held at historically high levels. On an annual-average basis, LME Grade A cash copper ranged from about $8,500/t (2023) to a forecast ~$9,700/t (2025), having spiked to a record intraday high near $11,000/t on the LME in May 2024 as energy-transition demand collided with supply disruptions. For a recycler, elevated prices improve the economics of scrap collection and recovery — while also intensifying competition for material.
LME copper price, 2021–2025 (USD/t, annual average)
LME Grade A copper, cash settlement, annual average. 2025 is an estimate; the May-2024 record (~$11k/t intraday) exceeds the annual mean. Source: LME, via USGS MCS 2026.
08
DEMAND & THE ENERGY TRANSITION
China-centric today; electrified tomorrow
Refined usage has nearly quadrupled in fifty years, anchored in Asia. ICSG trimmed 2026 world usage growth to ~1.6% on a weaker macro outlook; in Q1 2026 apparent usage rose just 0.8% as Chinese net refined imports fell ~40%. The long-run demand curve, however, is underwritten by electrification.
58%
China’s share of world refined copper usage
84%
Asia’s share of copper & copper-alloy semis (from 23% in 1980)
No. 1
Building construction — the largest end-use sector (ICA)
~4×
Copper in an EV versus a conventional car (≈83 vs ≈23 kg)
17 M+
Global electric-car sales in 2024
~980 Mt
World copper reserves (USGS) — constraint is supply pace, not geology
09
SECONDARY COPPER · OUR LENS
Scrap is no longer the swing factor — it’s a pillar
Secondary material delivered 4.7 million tonnes of refined copper in 2024 — about one-sixth of refinery output, before direct-melt scrap. It is also the fastest-growing source: ICSG forecasts secondary refined production up ~5.7% in 2026, and Q1 2026 data shows it already up ~7.6%, outpacing primary.
- ▪ICSG commissioned dedicated secondary-industry reports for China and the rest of the world (2024–2025)
- ▪End-of-life scrap from EVs and grids is years away; today’s flows carry a scarcity premium
- ▪EU policy — the Critical Raw Materials Act and recast Waste Shipment Regulation — rewards compliant, traceable scrap
- ▪Aggregating copper-bearing scrap and returning it to grade is precisely AC STEEL’s role
10
IMPLICATIONS
What this means for a European merchant-recycler
- ▪Reliability over volume. A finely balanced, disruption-prone market pays a premium for consistent grade and dependable settlement.
- ▪Scrap is strategic supply. With concentrates tight, every traceable tonne of secondary copper routed to a processor displaces constrained primary feed.
- ▪Policy tailwind. Europe’s security-of-supply agenda favours compliant, domestically-sourced, fully-documented scrap flows.
- ▪Structural, not cyclical, growth. Electrification underwrites demand for decades; the question is supply cadence — exactly where recyclers add value.
Sources: International Copper Study Group — The World Copper Factbook 2025, Copper Market Forecast 2026/2027 (23 April 2026) and monthly press release (22 May 2026, Q1 2026 preliminary data); U.S. Geological Survey — Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (Copper); London Metal Exchange; International Copper Association. Figures are rounded and, where stated, forecasts subject to revision. Provided as general market context — not investment advice or performance metrics of AC STEEL Sp. z o.o.
Put this market view to work
Discuss a reliable copper scrap supply relationship grounded in how the market actually moves.